Segons publica avui mateix Debka, l’informatiu israelià especialitzat en matèria de geoestratègia, aqueix cap de setmana Kerry i Lavrov estan negociant a Roma el suport conjunt al règim d’Al-Assad per tal que el seu exèrcit liquidi el Califat Islàmic.
Demà acudirà a la capital italiana Netanyahu per tal de mantenir Israel al marge d’aqueixes transaccions que podrien incloure també una proposta de les dues potències per imposar al poble jueu un Estat de Palestina amb els límits territorials anteriors a la guerra del 1967, provocada i perduda pels estats àrabs que veurien per fi premiada la seva incitació constant a la judeofòbia a canvi d’aturar el gihadisme global.
Aqueix és el titular de la informació: Is Obama ready for an about-face to recognize Assad ? Will Syria provide the strike force against ISIS ?.
“High expectations based on unconfirmed reports swirled around Arab capitals Sunday, Dec. 14, that US President Barack Obama, in league with Moscow and Tehran, had turned his longstanding anti-Assad policy on its head. He was said to be willing to accept Bashar Assad’s rule and deem the Syrian army the backbone of the coalition force battling the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.
If these expectations are borne out by the Obama administration, the Middle East would face another strategic upheaval: The US and Russia would be on the same side, a step toward mending the fences between them after the profound rupture over Ukraine, and the Washington-Tehran rapprochement would be expanded. The Lebanese Hizballah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah would be vindicated in the key role they played in buttressing President Assad in power.
But for Saudi Arabia and Israel, an Obama turnaround on Assad would be a smack in the face. The Saudis along with most of the Gulf emirates staked massive monetary and intelligence resources in the revolution to topple the Syrian ruler.
Israel never went all-out in its support for the Syrian uprising, but focused on creating a military buffer zone under rebel rule in southern Syria, in order to keep the hostile Syrian army, Hizballah and elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps fighting for Assad at a distance from its northern borders with Syria and Lebanon.
If Obama goes through with accepting the Assad regime, Israel will have to write off most of its military investment in Syria. In any case, Israel’s intelligence agencies misjudged the Syrian situation from the first; until a year ago, they kept on insisting that Assad’s days were numbered.
debkafile’s Arab sources single out major pointers to the approach of a reversal of Syrian policy in Washington:
1. The resignation of Chuck Hagel as defense secretary last month. Hagel was adamant in advocating Assad’s ouster. 2. No more than one sentence was devoted to the Syrian conflict in the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) summit’s resolutions in Doha last week, despite its centrality to inter-Arab affairs: the summit called for “a political solution” of the Syrian issue that would “ensure Syria’s security, stability and territorial integrity.”
Not a word on Assad’s removal from power.
3. debkafile’s Washington and Moscow sources report that the Syrian issue was destined to figure large in the Rome talks between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Sunday, Dec. 14.
The Kremlin is making US acceptance of its plan for ending the Syrian conflict the condition for joining the US-European line on the Palestinian demand that next week’s UN Security Council session set a two-year deadline for Palestinian statehood within 1967 border. The text calls for Israeli “occupation of Palestinian territory captured in the 1967 war” to end by November 2016.
France, Britain and Germany are in efforts to draft a resolution of their own.
So any deal Kerry and Lavrov are able to finalize for a tradeoff between the Palestinian and Syria issues will be put before Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu when he meets the US secretary in Rome Monday, Dec. 15. Netanyahu will ask Washington to exercise its veto against the Palestinian motion. But the Obama administration would rather not, since it supports the Palestinians in principle.
Israel may therefore find itself this time ranged against a united US-Russian front on the Palestinian issue, Moscow’s reward for Washington liniing up behind its plan for Syria. Moscow proposes that the Syrian opposition throw in the towel and both sides accept a truce – especially in the long battle for Aleppo – for the re-convening of the Geneva 2 peace conference in Moscow, with America’s support and participation. Provincial elections would then take place in Syria to bring the Assad government and opposition elements into collaborating in the various ruling institutions.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov spent two days in Damascus last week to work on the details of this blueprint with Bashar Assad, after which he commented tellingly that he was “in contact with our American partners.” Russian officials then elaborated on their plan before Hizballah and opposition representatives in Turkey.
Even the US Senate bill calling for fresh sanctions against Moscow and the supply of $350 million worth of military aid to Ukraine under the Ukraine Freedom Support Act is unlikely to rock the Kerry-Lavrov Middle East boat.
President Obama is unlikely to affix his signature to the bill and President Vladimir Putin will take it in his stride if he sees progress in reaching an agreement with the United States on Syria.
Even the American threat to station medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe following Moscow’s refusal to endorse the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty failed to cast a cloud over the Kerry-Lavrov encounter.
The two top diplomats have a solid history of progress in forging diplomatic accords on thorny international issues (e.g. Iran’s nuclear program and Syria’s chemical weapons). If they fail this time, Netanyahu’s talks with Kerry will be lighter and smoother. But if a Syria-Palestinian tradeoff is forged between the two powers, Israel may for the first time find itself on a collision course with a joint US-Russian front on the Palestinian issue.
Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem Sunday, Dec. 14, that Israel would “rebuff any UN moves to set a timetable for withdrawal from territory.” He said Israel now faced a possible diplomatic offensive “to force upon us” such a withdrawal within two years.
Therefore, the Israeli air strikes against a shipment of Russian missiles for Syria for Hizballah last Monday, Dec. 8, may be seen as an act of defiance against this nascent big-power partnership. Our sources reveal that Moscow was not alone in demanding “explanations” for Israel’s “aggressive” – so too did Washington”.
Post Scriptum, 16 de desembre del 2015.
Un any després el contingut d’aqueix apuntament es veu confirmat per una nova informació apareguda avui mateix al digital israelià Debka: “US bows to Russian demand keep Assad in office. Israel follows suit”. És a dir, el president Obama cedeix a la pretensió russa de mantenir al Assad al poder en detriment de la seguretat nacional d’Israel que veurà consolidada la presència d’Iran a les seves fronteres. Significativament, fa cinc anys, abans que esclatés la guerra multidimensional a Síria, Kerry va pressionar Netanyahu per avenir-se a negociar la pau amb el dictador sirià i davant el refús del líder jueu el secretari d’Estat nordamericà el va qualificar de miop i sense sentit estratègic.
Post Scriptum, 4 de gener del 2016.
Enllaço aqueix article de l’analista Yossef Bodansky sobre els lligams trellats entre Putin i Netanyahu publicat a Jewish Fórum, edició francesa, ahir mateix que estan congriant les aliances estratègiques entre ambdós estats.
Post Scriptum, 16 d’abril del 2016.
Debka publica avui aqueix article “Netanyahu to battle Obama, Putin over the Golan” contra les presentions de Rússia i els EUA d’incloure la retirada d’Israel dels Alts del Golan en les converses de pau sobre Síria que es desenvolupen a Ginebra. El govern israelià ja ha advertit que mai es retirarà d’un territori estratègic conquerit als sirians a la guerra del 1967 i on s’aplica la legalitat israeliana des del 1981.
Post Scriptum, 10 de juliol del 2018.
L’analista israelià Alex Fishmann publica avui a Ynetnews una anàlisi sobre les transaccions sobre Síria entre Putin i Trump a la cimera prevista a Helsinki i les repercussions per Israel de la presència iraniana a les seves fronteres: “The games at play in Syria“.
Post Scriptum, 20 de desembre del 2018.
El president Trump ha ordenat la retirada de les forces terrestres dels EUA a Síria arran d’un pacte amb Putin i Erdogan que consolida el règim d’Al-Assad, la presència iraniana i russa i deixa via lliure per tal que l’exèrcit turc ataqui els kurds després que hagin estat els veritables vencedors en la lluita contra el Califat Islàmic. Aqueix pacte ha estat gestat al marge d’Israel, com explica avui DEBKA, que queda aïllat front als seus enemics i globalment és una fase més de l’estratègia nordamericana de retirada del Pròxim Orient iniciada pel president Obama.
Post Scriptum, 27 de juliol del 2021.
El proppassat 24 el digital israelià Debka publicava aqueixa anàlisi: Moscow’s changed line on Israel’s Syria raids followed first Putin-Biden summit.
Moscow confirms DEBKAfile’s exclusive of July 21, (Putin steps away from deal with Netanyahu for a blind eye on Syria air strikes), according to the Saudi publication Sharq al Awsat. Our sources revealed that the Russian military had for the first time referred to an Israeli raid over Syria that targeted a research center in Aleppo, followed by a missile strike at a site for Iranian forces in al-Qusayr. In his detailed comment the Russian official stressed that Russian-made systems had downed “seven of eight guided missiles” fired by Israeli F-16 jets in the first raid and destroyed “all the missiles,” in the second on the 19th and 20th of July.
The Russian Defense Ministry, which has never before commented on Israeli raids, followed up with a statement citing “continuous attacks on Syrian sovereignty.” Both statements emphasized “the success of Syrian air defenses in confronting those attacks.”
A “well-informed Russian source” talking to Asharq Al-Awsat directly attributed this new Russian handling of Israel’s long air offensive against a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria to “talks launched with the United States following the first summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden last month.” He said, “Moscow received confirmation that Washington does not welcome the continuous Israeli raids.” The fact that all the launched missiles were destroyed indicates a fundamental change in handling this issue, the Russian source inferred. He noted Israel’s air force did not enter Syrian airspace but launched missiles from neighboring lands, at the expense of their effectiveness. However, he said, the heightened rhetoric from Moscow was directed against any Israeli military action “targeting Syria’s sovereignty, and in violation of international resolutions.”
These developments reflect a shift in Moscow’s views on the Israeli attacks and indicate that Moscow has “run out of patience” because “Tel Aviv continues to ignore Russian calls to set clear rules.” The Russian source believes there are political developments and opening channels of dialogue with the US which have removed a significant obstacle, noting that lack of communication had previously complicated the matters with Washington. The Saudi paper’s reporting follows DEBKAfile’s disclosures, but also shows the ground shifting in Washington as well as Moscow with regard to Israel’s systematic aerial campaign against Iran’s presence across its northern border. This question is now under discussion between the two powers.
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