Raül Romeva i Rueda

Han començat les dues setmanes probablement més decisives de les darreres dècades. Ja no hi ha marge per a la improvització. És hora de la concreció i el compromís. A través del blog STOP CLIMATE CHANGE podrem seguir l’evolució de la Cimera de Cophenague des de la perspectiva de la Delegació dels Verds/ALE al Parlament Europeu. Us recomano que el seguiu. Jo ho faré, és clar.

Copenhagen: the end of the road map?

As the long-awaited UN climate talks kick-off in Copenhagen, much doubt remains as to the potential outcome. What can we realistically hope for?

The countdown to Copenhagen is over: the UNFCCC COP15 will take place in the Danish capital over the next two weeks. The UN climate summit in Copenhagen represents, what was supposed to be, the culmination of the ‘road map’ to a new UN climate deal, which was set out in Bali two years ago.

One thing we now know for certain, however, is that the COP15 is unlikely to be the end of the road map. A complete and binding legal UN treaty on climate change to follow on from the first period of the Kyoto protocol (post-2012) will not be finalised in Copenhagen.

This open secret has been circulating for months but made global headlines three weeks ago when US president Obama visited the ASEAN summit (see our blog).

In the aftermath, there has been much confusion as to what the point of the COP15 now is. However, now that the dust has settled in the media, there is a clearer picture of what is to be played for in Copenhagen.

A background paper prepared by the Swedish presidency of the EU offers a pretty concise overview of what is at stake, as far as the EU is concerned:

“the central part of the Copenhagen outcome scenario is likely to take the form of Decisions…(which) would sketch the full contours of the final outcome, providing the guidance necessary to elaborate it into legal agreement text, specify a process for doing so and, if possible, specify the shape of the legal agreement to be reached. The outcomes of Copenhagen should then be elaborated into the final legally binding agreement…at a later meeting, taking place as soon as possible and feasible.”

The EU is hoping for binding decisions on the key political issues: the level and nature of emissions reductions for industrialised countries and climate financing for developing countries (including fast track financing to be ready from next year). These would then be worked into a full, legally-binding UN treaty to be finalised either in June 2010 in Bonn or in December 2010 at the next COP in Mexico. Related to this, the EU also wants there to be agreement on the next steps (i.e. how and when to finalise the treaty).

Other issues, which the EU regards as “crucial components” of the outcome of the COP15, include agreements on: a long term goal on emissions, how to monitor and verify emissions, compliance arrangements, market mechanisms (existing and new), LULUCF (how to deal with emissions from land use and land use change), REDD+ (how to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), the architecture for climate financing, an adaptation framework, technology considerations, bunker fuels (including proposals for a tax) and the inclusion of HFCs, a damaging greenhouse gas.

On the crucial issue of emissions reduction pledges from industrialised countries, it is not yet granted that Copenhagen will deliver meaningful individual commitments, with uniform and comparable coverage and accounting rules. It is not yet clear whether there will be a collective target or individual targets; whether there will be different decisions for different parties (e.g. for the US, which is looking for different treatment as regards how its pledges are incorporated).

Unfortunately, unless negotiators step up their pledges, it seems likely that the outcome will be far from the range of emissions reductions recommended by the scientific consensus in the IPCC 4th assessment report to give a 50:50 chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees – reductions of 25-40% by 2020 from 1990 levels. With the US pledge now clear (and India and China also having outlined their positions), it is hard to see where other momentum could come from.

The EU, which could provide such momentum, has refused to automatically step up its reduction pledge to a 30% reduction, despite strong pressure to do so, preferring to keep this as a “lever” or bargaining chip. As we know, even a 30% reduction in the EU would fall far short of its responsibility.

All this makes it all the more important that the deal should include a provision to review and strengthen the commitments in line with the latest science. The next IPCC assessment report is due to be finalised in 2014 and this should feed into such a review.

On the all important issue of the final legal format of the deal. The EU is continuing to sit on the fence.

There are three main options on the table: (1) a second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol (beyond 2012) plus a legally non-binding step for countries not party to the KP (i.e. the US and developing countries), (2) a second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol (beyond 2012) plus an additional legally-binding step for the countries not party to the KP, or (3) a new legally-binding protocol for all countries.

Clearly, there is much to play for over the coming two weeks. Many of the main political decisions, which will form the basis of a post-2012 UN climate treaty, will need to be taken at Copenhagen if they are to be worked into a full legal treaty in 2010.

There will be a need for real political leadership if the necessary decisions are to be taken, so it is welcome that so many world leaders will be attending the summit – even US president Obama has now confirmed he will be present for the important final days of the negotiations.

Failure to take these decisions would have disastrous consequences for those not represented in the talks: the planet and future generations.

Foto: Acció de Greenpeace en favor del Clima. Font: Greenpeace