Bon moment per recordar l’article publicat poc abans del 9N pel prestigiós bloc “Common Sense”
The Economic Consequences of Not Voting on 9N2014 by David Ros Serra
BY FDBETANCOR ⋅ SEPTEMBER 30, 2014 ⋅
Common Sense welcomes guest writer David Ros Serra, who writes about the economic consequences of suspending the Catalan referendum on local and European markets.
Mr. Ros is the Coordinator for the Economics Group within the Catalan National Assembly. He has a degree in Economic Science from the University of Barcelona and works as the Financial Coordinator for the Municipal Government of Sant Cugat del Vallès.
The opinions of the author are his own and do not necessarily represent those of Common Sense, the Catalan National Assembly, the municipal government of Sant Cugat del Vallès or any other organization. This article is printed with the author’s permission.
Please scroll to bottom for original version in Catalan
The Economic Consequences of Not Voting on 9N2014
- Europe has a lot to lose with the economic instability of Spain
One of the key requirements of an economy is stability and the confidence in the normal functioning of the political, judicial and social sphere.
In the light of the fact that:
- The Eurozone remains very fragile, with recessions again threatening key markets;
- Growth and unemployment figures are very bad in Europe, but especially in Spain;
- Spain public debt levels are already very high and will continue to grow;
If Spain were to become insolvent, few people doubt that it would cause a domino effect which would ripple across Europe and possibly the globe.
- A default is always very damaging to the insolvent country, but it also hurts neighboring markets. Our (European) economies are so intertwined that a Spanish failure would certainly provoke a deep recession across the continent;
- Without a doubt the European Union will do anything, pay any price, to avoid this eventuality.
- Spain wishes to continue oppressing the Catalan people
Catalonia is the motor of economic recovery in Spain. The region contributes 11 to 16 billion euros per year (USD$14 to $21 billion) more than it receives back in infrastructure investment and services.
- Catalonia and Spain can mutually destabilize each other
The Catalan people are mobilized in their demand for a new state. Their frustration with the irrational behavior of Mr. Rajoy can manifest itself in different ways, which could generate a lack of confidence in the situation among Catalan entrepreneurs and businessmen as well as with foreign investors. It should be obvious what this implies for Catalonia, Spain and Europe when this is the region that attracts the most investment in continental Europe.
Not only Spain would be destabilized. The economic uncertainty could affect all of the member states of the Eurozone due to the region’s interdependence. This could lead to serious questions about the sustainability of the Spanish debt as well as provoking insolvency fears in other Eurozone markets.
- The only way for Spain to avoid this uncertainty is to accept the referendum
Catalans have expressed their willingness to accept the results of the consultation, whatever those may be. In the event of a victory for “YES-YES” there would follow a period of transition and negotiation. Catalonia would require time to create and establish the state structures that it yet lacks, while Spain and the Spanish economy could also make use of the time to ensure a smooth transition.
- Time is against Spain. The reforms to the Spanish economy are also in need of a period of stability.
It is clear that Spain will require economic assistance from the European Union to overcome the deficiencies in its own reforms. The sooner Spain and Europe accept the separation of Catalonia, the sooner the negotiations on the terms of a bailout package can be negotiated with the EU (and other institutions like the IMF).
Spain must learn to stand on its own feet. One of the reasons an independent Catalonia would be a positive development is that the rest of the country would learn to succeed without parasitism. Once Spain really accepts that Catalonia is leaving, it will be able to start work on real economic reforms, not just spending cuts and/or tax increases).
Spain needs real political reforms, not just a repetition of past mistakes, in order to survive financially after the separation of Catalonia. It is that same separation which is needed to motivate them to finally undertake these critical reforms.